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More than 18 million people could lose Medicaid coverage and 4 million could be completely uninsured next year when the COVID-19 public health emergency ends, according to a recent analysis by the Urban Institute. there is.
This could result in the biggest shift in insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act came into force more than a decade ago, the findings suggest.
According to the latest data, from February 2020 to June 2022, the number of registered users soared by more than 18 million. This increase in enrollment is largely due to the ongoing compensation requirements of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, which have prevented state Medicaid agencies from unenrolling people during the coronavirus response period. PHE unless they specifically request it.
Using the latest available government data on Medicaid enrolment, recent household survey data on health coverage, and an Urban Institute health insurance policy simulation model, analysts estimate that approximately 3.2 million children are out of Medicaid. Presumed to be transitioning to another children’s health insurance program. Medicaid and CHIP enrollments will drop by 14.8 million.
As the data show, about 3.8 million people will be uninsured, while about 9.5 million people will have new employer-sponsored insurance or both employer-sponsored policies after losing Medicaid. Once enrolled, you transition to employer-sponsored insurance as your sole source of coverage. Insurance and Medicaid in PHE.
In addition, more than 1 million people have registered on the non-group market, most of whom are eligible for premium tax credits on the market.
Further enhancements to the PHE are possible, according to the Urban Institute. Furthermore, if he were extended to 90 days, the number of people losing Medicaid could increase to nearly 19 million.
The largest percentage of people who lose Medicaid, 9.5 million, will end up with employer-sponsored insurance (ESI), the report found. Nationwide, unemployment is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, and many people will lose their Medicaid eligibility just because they got a new job during PHE. An unknown number of people transitioning from Medicaid to her ESI only were enrolled in both types of coverage while on PHE. After PHE, he said the number of new enrollees in ESI could be significantly less than 9.5 million.
The end of PHE is still unknown. Additionally, if he were extended for 90 days, about 1 million more people would lose their Medicaid after it expires. The Biden administration promised to give his 60-day notice of PHE termination, but has resisted requests for further notice from many states.
About 4 million people could go uninsured, but those who switch from Medicaid to private insurance will pay more in premiums and out-of-pocket medical costs. A person who loses Medicaid, especially one who does not have access to her ESI, may experience a temporary interruption in health insurance before obtaining replacement coverage.
According to the Urban Institute, state policy decisions during the transition period after PHE expires will affect how many people lose coverage, how quickly they lose coverage, and how many people enroll in other coverage. give.
Enrolling in Medicaid during PHE may have other lasting effects, such as raising awareness of changes in health insurance coverage and changing perceptions of Medicaid, the authors say. increase. This experience could also help discuss other issues related to churn and continuity of coverage, such as his continued eligibility for Medicaid during his 12 months and better alignment between Medicaid and the market. there is.
the bigger trend
The public health emergency will be extended beyond the current January 11th deadline. If extended for another 90 days, the new deadline he will be in April.
PHE maintains waivers and policies regarding Medicaid coverage, telemedicine coverage, and additional payments to hospitals and doctors. Telehealth waivers expire 151 days after termination of PHE.
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