In 2070, if recent demographic trends continued, France would have 65.9 million inhabitants, or 3.2 million fewer than in 2026. The population would increase slightly until 2037 to reach 69.8 million
of inhabitants. This demographic growth would be due exclusively to net migration, with the natural balance becoming negative from 2025. From 2037, net migration would no longer compensate for the natural deficit and the population would therefore begin to decline.
By 2070, the number of inhabitants under 45 would fall by 8.9 million, while that of people aged 45 to 64 would be almost stable and those aged 65 or over would increase by 5.8 million. The increase in the number of
elderly people would be mainly driven by those aged 80 or over (+4.6 million); the number of centenarians could be multiplied by 4.
In 2040, there would be 49 people aged 65 or over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64, compared to 40 in 2026. Between 2040 and 2070, the evolution of this demographic dependency ratio is more uncertain; according to the central scenario, it would be 62 percent.
The aging of the population is certain, but the decline in the total population is only probable: by 2070, there would be between 61 and 71 million people in France, depending on whether we lower or raise the fertility or net migration hypothesis.
Population projections for 2070: an older population than in 2026, and probably fewer, Insee Première • n° 2108 • June 2026
